First and foremost, I will make a quickly analyse of brazilian market that is going to help to choose a sample data which will be better to describe the whole market. Besides, gain of computer performance to test and valuation models. In the firs moment we just have done a data mining to preprer the data for forecast analyse, and standarize few variables.
Remark about how I create group of Avarage Pack Size, I used a boxplot to set the size of each group:
The first graphic bellow ,volume and value normalized, helps us to undestand the trully moviment of market. In 2016, the volume market sharply drecrease more than the value market in the first semester creating a intersection point, after that, volume drecrease less than before June 2016 as you can note the blue line slope. One of my doubt is after June 2016, problably the price should have impacted the volume, as red line is almost flat. Also we can conclude that has been constant the price increase.
A quick undestand which Flavor has more impact in the market, easly notice in the graphic bellow the Flavor Milk Chocolate has a huge impact in the market result. So could be interst to analyzes separete, for do that, was select three Flavors by performance.
Now, you can check witouth be normalized. I had to use 3 different graph because the range of values is large, so if try to plot in a single chart, woulb clear the information.
Analysing the material market, as easy to realise the plastic predominant, the clomun chart on the left is the value market and on the right volume market by material package. In the end of 2017 seems exist a inverse correlation or just a casuality because the campaing agains plastics are inrease nowadays.
The caloric content always have been dominated by sugar, the graphic bellow can prove this sentence.